AFF Sentinel Vol.5#47

Pace of Change Could Accelerate.

We have a new president with startlingly different values from recent history; a Democratic Congress with bigger majorities and a difficult-to- filibuster Senate and one party controlling two branches of government, with the opportunity to affect the third.

The politicos have exhausted themselves guessing how the new sheriff will play his hand. Some think he will push for policies as far left and big- government oriented as his past writings, votes and early campaign promises. Already his transition team is talking about reversing executive orders and issuing new ones.

Others contend he will not want to shock the country right off the bat, since nearly half the country voted against him and he wants to be re-elected. These folks expect him to govern from the center left. They cite his later campaign rhetoric that moved closer to center as the race tightened. They doubt Congress will just rubber stamp anything from the far left if it implies a total government takeover.

Could the latter view be overlooking the pent up forces in Congress? Judging by past behavior, leaders Reid and Pelosi could go for broke while the election momentum and the urgency spawned of turbulent times favors them. The sheriff might suddenly find himself the driver on a runaway stage, having to choose between sawing on the reins and throwing the brake - or cracking the whip. What no one will do is halt things by shooting the horses in their tracks.

Perhaps radio commentator Mark Levin is right: Obama will govern from the far left and his spin- doctors and the mass media will paint it as "moderate." They regard themselves as "moderates." The "right-wingers," -- anyone else -- are "out of touch" - the "bitter clingers" of Obama's unguarded thoughts, the "selfish" capitalists opposing the spreading around of (their) wealth.

Obama has said his first priority will be an economic stimulus package. In that grab bag has been mentioned "green" jobs, i.e. jobs in renewable energy research and buildup. That means throwing tax money at energy industries that have proven themselves to now economic failures, even after billions in research and development, and sometimes subsidies.

While there might be some short-term spending boosts for meat from a stimulus package, another likely early priority has no silver lining. Having the same bureaucratic mentality that has made the post office, the DMV, the VA and Social Security absolute pantheons of efficiency and taxpayer delight running a government healthcare "system" will cost billions, dampen the economy and yield trainloads of frustration.

More affordable, conventional energy like oil, natural gas and coal could get early action. Not only does that affect input costs for cattlemen and crop farmers, it affects consumer spending at restaurants and meat counters. Reid and Pelosi had their heels dug in on drilling pre-election and Obama's transition team is talking about executive orders shutting down Utah drilling already. Obama and Biden apparently think some magic source of electricity is nigh and regard "coal" as an epithet.

The reality is that neither the environmental activists nor the left's politicians are realists regarding energy. The public showed a glimmer of intelligence when gas prices hit $4.50, suspecting there was a connection between pump prices and drilling for oil here. OPEC understands supply and demand. They've cut production by two million barrels/day already and contemplate more.

Probably all we'll see near-term is spending on the impractical and unrealistic and nothing on conventional energy, until gas hits $6.00.

Trade is critical for the meat industry. But our need runs contrary to IOU's Obama owes the environmentalists and the unions. Neither faction wants trade. In addition, the unions want card check to unionize more companies. So new trade agreements seem unlikely. If Obama is shortsighted enough to open up NAFTA, Canada and Mexico will make us pay more for energy and our two biggest beef customers could become problematic or surly. After all, mCOOL is already costing them serious money. Why would they be happy with us?

We can only hope we will not end up with an activist secretary of agriculture in the stripe of Carter's Assistant Secretary Carol Tucker Foreman. Already, the activists and extremists who oppose today's agriculture will get a welcome reception from government agencies and Congress. The appointment of more liberal judges in federal courts and at the Supreme Court will present further activist opportunities.

We're just afraid the majority won't know how to care for the Golden Goose.

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